With the July 4 holiday weekend upon us, everyone wants to know what the forecast will be.

Will it snow (no); will it be hot (we are right in the middle of the hottest time of year so yes); will we finally get the monsoon (a definite maybe… as a meteorologist I can never be definitive! It is not in our DNA!). I’m here to answer those questions plus more (not good news).

Everyone likes the monsoon, right? The good news is that for the first time this monsoon season (“The North American Monsoon System” season officially runs from June 15 thru Sept. 30 across the Southwest United States) our area will have a chance, albeit a slight chance, of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

However before the forecast I need to emphasize how dry it is across the state.

Did you know that as of this date a whopping 36% of the residents of New Mexico are under drought conditions and an additional 58% more of the residents of New Mexico are under abnormally dry conditions? In other words, a whopping 94% of New Mexico residents are under drought or abnormally dry conditions. This has been increasing steadily over the past month. If you are interested in following the drought conditions across New Mexico please see drought.gov/drought/states/new-mexico.

Unfortunately with drought and abnormally dry conditions comes very high to extreme fire danger. Here is the latest Energy release component from the USFS in Mountainair.

What is the bottom line? Please please be very careful out there. Shooting off fireworks could spell disaster for the East Mountains. This can not be emphasized enough.

Now to the forecast. The upper air pattern will be conducive for moisture to be advected (transported) from Old Mexico (this is what meteorologists call Mexico) into New Mexico.

In the lower levels moisture will be advected from the Gulf of Mexico. All of this moisture along with daytime heating will lead to isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from Friday right through the weekend. Not every locale will get rain—in fact most will probably not get any significant rain.

But like the movie “Dumb and Dumber,” so you say there is a chance? Yes there is. High temperatures will be in the 80s with low temperatures from the mid 50s to lower 60s. A did you know—I have seen lightning strike more than 60 miles from the core of a thunderstorm.

For additional information please see the latest from the National Weather Service Office in Albuquerque at weather.gov/abq.

Please be safe!